In Communist and Islamic dictatorships, democratic reform subverts the status quo. Mubarak is down in the polls now … but not out. Dictators are good at digging in and paying overtime to soldiers who shoot straight as Nordlinger reminds in: The Duration of Dictatorships . I am not, however, certain that even should Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution spread to and topple the Egyptian dictatorship and then maybe Sudan … that we’ll see anything in the region emerge resembling a western democracy, or anything remotely friendly to western liberalism. In fact, what emerges could well be even more hostile and subversive to our ideas of equality, liberty, and freedom of expression.
If this Mideast revolt persists, will we see an Ottoman Empire of the 21st Century? Unlikely, given the numerous and violent Islamic factions, but some form of pan-Arabism or Islamic state could start to form. Not a good time to buying futures in Arminian companies … if any were left. As Nordlinger’s colleague Rich Lowry reminds us:
Every revolution against autocracy is initially stirring. Who wouldn’t have cheered when Louis XVI was forced to convene the Estates General, or when a liberal provisional government took over from Czar Nicholas, or when the rank and file of the Shah’s army refused to fire on protesters in the streets? All these inspiring events were mere prelude to catastrophe, making the years 1789, 1917, and 1979 synonymous with the onset of tyranny and bloodshed.
Full article here. A Pew Global poll from December 2010 showed a vast majority of Egyptians in favor of harsh Islamic punishments and Sharia law, and a majority in favor of democracy. See here. I predict we’ll have an Islamic “democracy” soon in Egypt, similar to what developed in Iran. And like there, we won’t like it and they won’t like us.
Iran 1979; Egypt 2011? Interesting how the parallels between Obama and Carter continue. President Obama was nearly silent when the citizens of our enemy Iran rose up against the government, but he speaks up in support of those that protest one of our closest allies in the region.
Prayer points from Dr. David Crandall, Answers in Genesis: 1-Restoration of law and order in the country, as there is no security system in place at present. 2-Peaceful transfer of power to a new democratic government. 3-Protection of the Christian people and their Churches. 4-The vacuum of power will not encourage the extreme Brotherhood Muslim group to fill the gap and rule the nation, as this will limit the Christian witness. 5-Quick resolution of this situation, so ministry plans in country will not be disturbed.